Adapting Continuity of Business approaches
for Upland Gamebirds Risk Assessment

Traditional poultry farms are often in close proximity to other poultry farms, resulting in potential risk of exposure to disease via local area spread. To control an outbreak, it is standard for officials to set up a 10 km Control Area around a known infected premises and control movements in that area. However, some types of birds, like upland gamebirds, are often raised on isolated farms which are on average more than 15 km from any premises with susceptible species1 meaning that few upland gamebird farms would likely be in a regulatory Control Area during an Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak. On the other hand, the risk of infections from wild birds (i.e. not as a result of local area spread) is diffuse and unrelated to distance from an already infected farm. For these reasons, a proactive risk assessment  is needed to help everyone understand and mitigate the risks of upland gamebird movements even if located outside a Control Area when there is perceived or real consequence to the movement like the release of upland gamebirds for hunting.

Image

Visualizing the risk of infection by distance from an infected premises; the risk (red) of infection is greatest closest to an infected premises and decreases farther away from the infected premises. Based on modeling of the H5N2 HPAI outbreak of 20152, this figure shows how infection risk (based on calculated daily hazard rates) decreases as a function of the distance from an infected premises. Yellow circles = X km radius.


References
1. Ssematimba A, St. Charles KM, Bonney PJ, Malladi S, Culhane M, Goldsmith TJ, et al. Analysis of geographic location and pathways for influenza A virus infection of commercial upland game bird and conventional poultry farms in the United States of America. BMC Veterinary Research. 2019;15(1):147. DOI: 10.1186/s12917-019-1876-y


2. Bonney PJ, Malladi S, Boender GJ, Weaver JT, Ssematimba A, Halvorson DA, Cardona CJ. 2018. Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015 outbreak. PLoS One 13:e0204262. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204262